Pic of the Day/Scary Thought of the Day

all you year-round exercise-training-fitness freaks who believe winning the East Luray Liars Triathlon is a matter of training better, faster, longer, harder….just know this…Tom McParland has started running….and has been at it for more than a month. This could be his year

2 Days and a wake-up — odds

Echoing the last two years, I’ve saved the overall odds for 2 days before the event, giving everyone plenty of time to lobby, but also enough time to adjust, as needed. A few words on “odds” and scoring.

• these “odds” are informational only, as the House is not actually taking bets. $30 covers the keg and a shirt, not a bookie fee.
• the “odds” are on winning first place overall, not just reaching the overall podium and/or finishing the race
• The Commissioner has reconfirmed that reaching the overall podium requires completing all four stages of the race. Appeals to The Commissioner can be made at any time

Odds of winning 1st Place Overall in the 2013 East Luray Liars Triathlon

Steve Otto (2012 Champion, 2009 2nd place) — 15-1: Otto flew the race at top speed in 2012, stopped only by a tree on the time trial. In 2011, the field slanted heavily towards the rock climbers and mountain bikers, stages that Otto did well in, but faced crazy steep competition. This year, Otto could medal in climbing, golf, and mountain biking. In hoops, just like last year…well…one of his teammates was on a champion team once. If he repeats his 2012 performance, minus the crash, Otto will be well-positioned for a return to the overall top 3.

JP Ratajczak (2012 2nd place overall, 2008 champion) — 10-1: JP benefits from the rules change eliminating expectations. And his 2nd place finish in 2012 makes him heavily favored this year. If his golf game hasn’t improved, but his basketball teammates continue last year’s success (2nd place in an epic final game), he should be on the podium at the end.

Eric Marshall (2012 3rd overall) — 100-1: In 2012, the odds started like this: “Here is your 2012 Easy-Money-Lock Grey Horse contender, a true mudder” and he finished 3rd, which proves these odds are somewhat based in reality.  The real world is keeping Eric off the rocks and away from golf this year, which means his medaling chances are reduced to mountain biking (easily in the top 5, not sure if he’ll crack the top 3) and basketball…where one of his teammates is a 5 time winner.

Dan Moore (2011 champion, 2008 3rd place) — 50-1: Danno remains in contention for rock climbing. His golf game still sucks and he is out of contention for mountain biking. So his chances for the podium rest with with hoops…and his teammates, as it stands now, are both roookies not known for their basketball skills. A first on the rocks, a hole-in-one (resulting in 3rd), and a miracle on the court and Danno could place again.

Eric Shimp (2010 champion) — 12-1: Eric has one weakness — mountain biking. With some luck (meaning mostly bad luck attached to Marshall, Lapham, and Gus) in golf and a solid hoops performance, plus a decent year on the ropes, Eric could very well medal in three events. And, for what its worth — over 5 years of competition, no racer has earned a medal in all four events. If he pulls down three stage medals, its hard to see him missing the podium again in 2013….all depends on golf…

Eric Lapham (2010 2nd place) — 100-1: Eric will miss rock climbing due to injury/real-life, but should expect to medal in golf and mountain biking. If Lapham is sitting on two 1st place finishes and the next two stages produce 6 winners without another stage win…The Commissioner, The Race Director, and the head of the ELLT Competition Committee may need to have a special rules discussion regarding GC qualifications…but only if we’re looking at 2 1st place finishes and a messy rest of the field.

Steve Ball (2008 2nd place) — 25-1: Revisiting last year’s projection: “Steve’s podium finish in 2008 came from the perfect ELLT strategy: low expectations, a strong liver, and good luck.” With expectations no longer a factor, Steve’s training and actual atheltic execution become the key difference. His basketball team is intact from last year, so a little more experience may help. Cardio and strength training should help on the rocks. He will, once again, get a decent mountain bike and should be able to cut his time trial time by 75%. He will suck at golf…but medals on the rocks and bikes…and mixology skills that reduce the other racers’ skills…and maybe possibly he could be that dark horse surprise winner.

Steve Schukraft (2011 3rd Place) — 35-1: Steve illustrates perfectly the bias built into the stages and why the golf-and-basketball players are more heavily favored over time against the rock-climbers-and-mountain-bikers. In short, you can get better at biking and climbing more quickly than you can get better at golf (and, to a lesser degree, hoops). So if you have a decent golf game, you’re always in contention, provided you put a little time in working on cardio and some basic rock/ride techniques. Of course, the competition in golf is a bit more intense, with the elite players all very closed matched. All of which makes me think we need to consider a true golf handicap approach for 2014. But for now we have Steve Schukraft, sneaky good at rock climbing and mountain biking, but hobbled by limited golf skills and questionable basketball teammates. If the top three golfers win nothing else and the winning court trio is similarly shut out, medals in climbing and biking could propel Steve back to the podium…but those are long odds.

Tom McParland (2010 3rd place) — 23-1: Tom set an impossibly high bar last year with his speech on Thursday night, labeling the rest of the field as runner-ups and making “no apologizations” for his pending abscence. So this year, the pressure is on…golf and rock climbing are a mystery as previous years give no real indications. And we should expect an outstanding time trial, but will be surprised if he overcomes his teammates at hoops. Early success on the rocks, confusion in the GC standings, and a solid time trial and he sneaks into 1st.

Mike Graf – 15-1: From last year: “Every year the Young Liars are convinced Me-Mike has a shot at 1st place overall, which means Mike is terrible at setting expectations low (at least with the younger crowd). This year, Mike’s got an improved hoops team, 4 years of experience on the rocks, and a properly-sized mountain bike. If he trims a couple minutes off his time trial and puts that length to use on the rocks…this could be Mike first trip to the overall podium.” Just needs a properly fitting helmet and we’re looking at a strong contender for 1st.

Chris Doyle — 11-1: Everyone has benefitted and suffered from Steve Ball’s penchant for muddlers and the morning-after regrets, but only Chris has had his triathlon derailed by Steve Ball’s terrible sense of direction. By following Steve the wrong way on the time trial, Chris took himself out of contention on the bikes and probably used up the extra strength he needed to sink the winning shot in basketball. He has a decent shot on the rocks, could take a 3rd place in golf, should expect to be in contention on the bikes….and could very well be part of the hoops team that ends the Shimpean Dynasty. Gentlemen, your Grey Horse Lock for 2013, Chris Doyle…

Jason Madden — 35-1: Jason came in 9th on the time trial last year and his basketball team won two games. In other words, he is coasting below the radar and could easily outperform last year’s personal results (although in basketball, he may be a bit more challenged). With a solid showing on the rocks and a little luck on the bike….still some long odds, considering his golf game and hoops teammates.

Chris Heffernan – 150-1: Without doing the rocks, golf, and biking Chris’ odds are substantially diminished. He is likely to have a gold medal winner on his basketball team…but….seriously…hard to see a podium finish.

Gary Cavanaugh — 12-1: This is Gary’s year. He will compete in the first six stages (including Muddling) and is a serious contender in golf and basketball. All he needs to do is complete rock climbing and mountain biking, medal in the other two events, and he is a lock for the podium. A first in golf and hoops and he gets his first overall championship.

Tom Gustafson — 100-1: Without rock climbing, Tom’s overall chances are diminished…..but…he could repeat in the green jacket and his 2012 mountain biking time was shockingly fast. If – huge if – his basketball teammates can step up and play fast, quick, high-percentage shooting hoops, he could step up to the podium. But…he’ll need extra help, especially if he falters even slightly on the golf course.

Eric Gundrum — 150-1: Real-life is taking Eric away for the final three events, so he will need to win on the rocks and the golf course to reach the podium (with help), but….that seems unlikely (at least on the golf course). He has, however, provided the absolute best basketball jerseys for Team Guinness…(and I can’t find a single picture of that elusive bastard)

John Coliano and Brecht Palombo — 150-1 (each): Rookies have traditionally done well, but those years included expectations in the scoring….so John and Brecht will have to overcome 5 years of experience and a basketball teammate prone to wandering off to the keg in mid-game.

ELLT 2013 Hoops — These are your teams

On Saturday afternoon, August 2, the following teams will take the court, order of match-ups to be determined:

Hoosiers: JP, Chris Doyle, and Mike Graf (last year’s runners-up, looking for revenge)

Cubed: Steve Ball, Steve Otto, and Steve Schukraft (easily the best dressed last year, with their cool shirts)

Granite: Chris Roy, Chris Heffernan, and Danno (pound for pound, the most like their team name)

Styx: Eric Shimp, Gary Cavanaugh, and Eric Marshall

Bill Dow’s Little Leaguers: Eric Lapham, Jason Madden, and Tom Gustafson

Guinness: Tom McParland, Eric Gundrum, and me

Please remember — all this is subject to change, as players’ schedules and/or injuries may preclude them from making the basketball stage of the race. In the event we need to mix up the teams, we will…

and a few more pictures from hoops over the years:

Pic of the Day

current and future triathletes…all pretty’d up for Kentucky Preakness 2013

Links of the Day – May 7

sadly, not the kind pictured below, although its a good day for it…

This guy Dale Katechis needs to come compete in the ELLT…he has the right attitude…and he can bring his own beer

I will add this to a Music That Doesn’t Suck post once I listen to the whole thing, but so far exactly what you would expect from Billy Bragg hangs out with Wilco (yes, I know its a year old, but I missed it before now)

and the most visited ELL page of the last week – this one, not sure why….

 

ELLT 2013: Basketball Teams

on Saturday evening, these three formed the first team for ELLT 2013 basketball

yes, they also locked in their team color….if any one of them learns how to handle the ball, play the point, and defend against an outside shot, they could be the team to beat….

Baseball Season is Over (here), Bring On Darko…

the Red Sox season has completely sucked and I am glad it ends today. While I’ll happily cheer for the Nationals and their fans during the post-season, I’ll admit my mind is already on the NBA, because the Celtics signed the guy drafted ahead of Melo and Dwayne Wade, the Serbian SuperStar, the touchstone for one of the best blogs evah, Darko Milicic…get ready for a Celtics Championship Season, baby…

yes, I know his career stats make him comparable to Tom McParland at his ELLT best, but you simply cannot go wrong with Darko on the team. The guy brings eastern European charm and Serbian luck…

ELLT 2012 Event Preview: Mountain Biking

Before we get to previewing this year’s mountain bike stage (which has been covered a bit by video and a quick assessment), a quick look back at how this stage has evolved over the last four years:

• 2008 – a technical, granite-filled ride/hike in Exeter, New Hampshire;
• 2009 – a relatively casual, although long, ride through Willowdale, which included the group breaking into pieces more than once and Gary Cavanaugh bellowing on the descents;
• 2010 – a tougher, longer, crash-filled ride through Willowdale, with more shattering of the pelaton and a general sense afterwards that the stage needed revamping;
• 2011 – Danno’s Death March through Willowdale, followed by a time trial (the “white arrow” trail in reverse and the slalom course to finish)

So we’ve seen this stage develop more than any other and this year we’re moving away from Willowdale to a more hilly, longer, slightly more technical area. As in previous years, we’ll be assembling a Star Wars fleet of bikes for the out-of-town riders, although we’ve got some better bikes this year, insha’allah. We will also be racing without Tom McParland,* who took 3rd place overall in 2010 in large part due his mountain biking skills. In the 2011 time trial, Tom finished 4th.

And maybe the best part of the stage (which will include a 7-8 mile ride and a short, steep time trial) will be lunch after at Red Hook Brewery.

* don’t worry, he’ll  be there Thursday night with The Knot

ELLT 2012: 36 Days and a Wake-Up

Just over a month to go, so a good time to start reviewing the plan, hearing the complaints, setting the expectations bars higher and lower. This year we’re biking someplace different, but returning to Red Hook…

Basic Race Itinerary:

Thursday July 26

• Pre-race BBQ at 11 Adams Lane, Byfield-Newbury

Friday, July 27

• 7am: Prologue Stage – Penalty Kicks and Townies v Roadies Soccer, Central Street Fields, Byfield-Newbury
• 9:30am: Rock Climbing, MetroRock, Newburyport
• 1:00pm: Flatbreads, Amesbury
• 3:00pm: Golf, Amesbury Country Club
• 7:30pm: Roast Beef, Steak Bombs, and Beer

Saturday, July 28

• 8:00am: Mountain Biking, Stratham, NH
• 12:30pm: Red Hook Brewery, Portsmouth, NH
• 3:30pm: Basketball, Adams Lane, Byfield-Newbury
• 7:00pm: Closing Ceremonies with Families and Food

Sunday, July 29

• 9:00am: Antiquing with Steve Ball, Rowley, MA (optional)
• 9:15am: Biscuits & Gravy, Nancy’s Marshview Cafe, Salisbury, MA
• 11:00am: assume the position below

ELLT 2012 Hoops Teams – Get Out the Way

As of now*, the 3-on-3 hoops teams for ELLT 2012…

First, a word on the selection process. I went for athletic balance and a natural grouping this year, however one team lacks a natural point guard and one lacks a Big Man. I’m on one of those teams and the other one is such an inevitable group that they can’t complain. Or they can and it won’t do any good. Bottom line: 4 of the 6 teams have a PG, a Big Man, and a Third Wheel.*** I’ll do scouting reports after the bitching and moaning is over.

Second, we’ve got a rookie joining this year, Tom Gustafson. Tom was Owen’s football coach and has mad skillz on the ski slopes. In other words, not a threat to dunk on Shimp or dribble around Chris Roy.

Third, these teams are pretty well balanced with talent…based on previous performances**…and designed to allow just about any team a chance to win

Cubed: Otto, Ball, Schukraft

NHL: Eric Marshall, Gary, Tom McParland

NH: Chris Roy, Chris Heffernan, Danno

Byfield Newbury Little League: Eric Lapham, Jason Madden, Tom Gustafson

Hoosiers: JP, Mike Graf, Chris Doyle

Diplomatic Corps****: Eric Shimp, Patrick, Ben Moeling

* revisions based on attendance, injuries, and lobbying are probably to be expected…

** if the Grey Ghost runs this year’s triathlon, we’ll shake this all up again….

*** one team’s “Third Wheel” is a legit PG/2-Guard, making that team an early favorite…as I edit this, considering how I may have to break that team up….damn….

**** yeah, its pathetic that Eric Shimp and I still cling to our Foreign Service days like some striped-pants badge of honor…but you’ll be happy we do when you crush us on the court